Here’s an interesting thought experiment from Al Bartlett to test your understanding of exponential growth:
Imagine an empty bottle that contains just 1 cell of bacteria. Every minute, the bacteria divides and doubles. At 11:00 AM, there is just 1 cell. At 12:00 PM, the bottle is full.
At what time is the bottle 50% full of bacteria?At what time is the bottle 1% full?
At what time would the bacteria realise they are running out of space? (Let’s grant them some intellect & agency)
Now suppose when the bottle is 1% full, some enterprising bacterium discovers 3 new bottles (that’s a 400% increase in available space). At what time are all 4 bottles full?
Now the math here is incredibly simple. The real challenge is getting your head around the consequences of geometric growth within finite constraint.
(hint: human consumption is doubling about every 25 years)
